Japan Brief/FPCJ, No. 0931
June 10, 2009


Fertility Rate Rises for Third Consecutive Year to 1.37 in 2008

Japan’s total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman is expected to bear in her lifetime, rose 0.03 points to 1.37 in 2008, marking an increase for the third consecutive year since 2005, when the figure registered a record low of 1.26. As background factors, the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare pointed to the continuing increase in childbirth among women in their thirties accompanying the trend toward later marriage and the fact that childbirth among women in their twenties, which had been decreasing, appears to be leveling off. The actual number of births remained level in 2008, however, so the trend toward fewer children in the population remains unchanged. The editorials of Japan’s main newspapers drew attention to the mountain of issues that still exist and called for further measures to counter the low birthrate. The Yomiuri Shimbun editorial (June 4) emphasized, “Now that the fertility rate has somehow recovered to nearly 1.4 after hitting a record low of 1.26 in 2005, we are at a crucial juncture.”

Increased Childbirth by Women in Their Thirties Due to Later Marriage

The Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare revealed the rise in the total fertility rate for the third consecutive year in its report on vital statistics released on June 3. From the 1960s to the mid-1970s the total fertility rate hovered around 2, but in 1975 it fell below 2 and began a long-term downward trend. (A total fertility rate of 2.07 is necessary to maintain the existing population level.) According to the statistics announced by the ministry, the number of babies born in 2008 remained almost level at 1,091,150, up 1,332 over the previous year. Amid the drop in the number of women of childbearing age due to the decline in the size of the total population, this slight increase in the number of childbirths was enough to improve the fertility rate per individual. The number of marriages in 2008 was 726,113 couples, up 6,291 couples over the previous year. The trend toward later marriage continued, with the average age at first marriage being 30.2 years for men and 28.5 years for women. The average age of women at the time of their first childbirth rose for the sixteenth consecutive year to 29.5 (29.4 in 2007).

Regarding the background to the rise in the total fertility rate, the Asahi Shimbun editorial (June 8) commented, “The fact that 2008 was a leap year, coupled with the reasonably good state of the economy during the first six months, apparently contributed to the rise. But the key factor behind the climb is an increase in marriages and childbearing among women in their 30s, an age group that includes children of baby boomers, according to reports.” The Sankei Shimbun editorial (June 5) remarked, “One cause was probably the fact that an economic recovery continued until the middle of last year, so there were more people who felt that they could afford to have children. Another likely cause was that the government’s measures to counter the low birthrate were having an effect.”

At the same time, however, the editorials also pointed out that “We should conclude that the basic structure of the low birthrate remains unchanged” (Mainichi Shimbun, June 4); “It is premature to say that this means the low-birthrate trend has been halted” (Sankei); and “But some say this is a temporary phenomenon due to a tendency to put off marriages and childbearing. No optimism is warranted” (Asahi). The Nikkei editorial (June 8) warned, “The economic expansion until 2007 and other factors appear to have contributed [to the rise in the total fertility rate], but amid the economic crisis that has occurred since last fall, it will be difficult to continue this trend for a long time. In addition, with regard to the population structure, the children of the baby-boom generation are now reaching their late thirties. We should understand that if the situation remains as it is, the birthrate will return once again to a downward trend.”

Editorials Emphasize Issue of Consolidating Upward Trend

Concerning issues from now on, the Mainichi editorial (June 4) commented, “The main issue will be to mobilize a comprehensive range of policies and consolidate the upward trend.” It went on, “The basis of measures to counter the low birthrate is to build an environment that makes it easy to give birth to and raise children. The only way to do that is to formulate sound measures and implement them steadily over time. It is not a situation that can be improved overnight by allocating a huge budget.” The Mainichi also remarked, “There is a mountain of issues to be addressed, such as increasing the number of child day-care centers, solving the problem of educational expenses, tackling medical problems, including the shortage of pediatricians, improving the situation of nonregular workers, and building an environment in which women can both work and raise their children.”

The Asahi editorial (June 8) urged, “Japan’s public spending on child and family benefits is equivalent to a puny 0.8 percent of gross domestic product. That contrasts with the 3 percent of GDP spent by France and Sweden, which have succeeded in lifting their birthrates significantly. In a medium-term tax and welfare reform program announced late last year, the Japanese government aims to enhance social security by making radical changes in the taxation system. This will include an increase in the consumption tax rate after the economy recovers. The low fertility rate is cited as a key policy challenge to be tackled under the program. But it is not clear what kind of measures will be drawn up and how much the government intends to spend on them. The government should swiftly draw up a road map for implementing specific measures with clear priorities.”

The Nikkei editorial (June 8) stated, “In the future the allocation of part of the revenue obtained through a consumption tax hike to measures to counter the low birthrate is going to be an issue. But before that, a stable revenue can be obtained for the time being by slightly adjusting the elderly-young ratio in the distribution of social security benefits, which currently stands at 70:4.” It went on, “The administration’s ability to compile a well-modulated budget that shifts from investment in things to investment in people is going to be tested.” The Nikkei also suggested, “Another effective means would be to shape the proposed assistance combining tax deductions and benefits, the introduction of which is being considered by both the government and the Democratic Party of Japan, so that it provides greater support to the child-raising generation.”

The Yomiuri editorial (June 4) stated, “It will be necessary to extend more support in the fields where policy measures have proven to be effective, while taking bold new steps in areas where efforts have yet to bear fruit. Nevertheless, the budgets allocated to measures to address the declining birthrate have been far from adequate. While member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development earmark, on average, 2 percent of their gross domestic product for child- and family-related assistance, the figure is a mere 0.8 percent in Japan. The government has determined that more than 2 trillion yen in fiscal resources will be needed to pay for much-needed support measures for child-rearing. This amount could be secured with the revenue raised by a one percentage point hike in the consumption tax rate. In this respect, the consumption tax should be renamed the social security tax as soon as possible, with a view to tackling the declining birthrate.”

The Sankei editorial (June 5) said, “Recently social attitudes toward marriage and child-raising have been changing, too. An increasing number of women athletes and entertainers continue to be active while raising children. And the word konkatsu (hunting for a marriage partner) has become popular. In order to take advantage of such currents, we hope that the government will fully mobilize policies, including the adoption of necessary budgetary measures.”

(Copyright 2009 Foreign Press Center, Japan)

*Japan Brief is an original production of the Foreign Press Center, Japan, and does not represent the views of the Government of Japan or of any other body.


<Related Articles>
-【Press Briefing Summary】Ms. Yuko Obuchi, Minister of State for Social Affairs and Gender Equality: Japan’s Countermeasures against the Falling Birthrate（2009-05-29）
-Number of Children Declines for 28 Consecutive Years: Countermeasures Urgently Required（2009-05-13）
-【Press Briefing Video Report】Minister of State Yuko Obuchi: Japan’s Countermeasures against the Falling Birthrate（2009-05-08）