Japan Brief/FPCJ, No. 0925
May 13, 2009


Number of Children Declines for 28 Consecutive Years:
Countermeasures Urgently Required

According to an announcement by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on May 4, as of April 1, 2009, the estimated number of children aged up to 14 years in Japan was 17.14 million, 110,000 fewer than a year before and a decline for the twenty-eighth consecutive year. The ministry also revealed that the estimated ratio of children to total population stood at 13.4%, a drop for the thirty-fifth consecutive year and the lowest figure among countries with a population of over 30 million people.

The problem of the declining birthrate has been talked about in Japan for a long time now, but in recent years especially calls for urgent countermeasures have become increasingly earnest. The latest White Paper on the Birthrate-Declining Society compiled by the government, which issued the Outline of Measures for Society with Declining Birthrate in 2004, spotlights the gap between goals and reality and strongly urges improvements (Mainichi Shimbun editorial, May 5). Similarly, the Council for the Realization of a Reassuring Society, a government panel of experts, has been studying the form of a society in which people can live with peace of mind, and measures to counter the declining birthrate are expected to be a pillar of its final report. Members have been calling for more investment in young people, including education, and easing of the burden on child-raising households (Sankei Shimbun editorial, May 4).

Threat to Maintenance of Economic and Social Systems

Depending on the response, the problem of the declining birthrate could shake economic and social systems in the future. According to The Nikkei (May 4 editorial), although “the adverse impact brought about by the simultaneous acceleration of the declining birthrate and aging population is not going to surface soon,” “in particular, the decline in the working-age population caused by the falling birthrate amounts to a decrease in the number of consumers, workers, and taxpayers, and this will impede the growth power of the Japanese economy in the medium and long term.” Furthermore, the same editorial noted, “This trend will make it difficult to reconstruct the finances of the central government and local governments, which have deteriorated to an unprecedented level, and threaten the sustainability of the social security system, such as pensions and medical and nursing care insurance.”

The Sankei (May 4 editorial) likewise commented, “If the declining birthrate and aging advance, social and economic vitality will be lost. We will be unable to maintain not only the social security system, which is based on intergenerational support, but also many other existing social systems.” The Sankei editorial added that this anxiety “is causing many people to be worried about the future.”

In fact, signs of this impact on economic and social systems are already appearing. According to the Asahi Shimbun (May 5 editorial), “. . . the gap in the burden-benefit balance between the minors and senior citizens of today will stand at a whopping 100 million yen over their lifetime. And each baby comes into the world today with a ‘lifetime net burden’ of more than 15 million yen.”

Main Newspaper Editorials

As May 5 was Children’s Day in Japan, a national holiday, all of Japan’s five main national newspapers carried editorials relating to children on May 4 and 5. Among them, two newspapers especially put the focus on measures to counter the declining birthrate.

Under the headline “Declining-birthrate countermeasures: Government must secure financial resources,” the Sankei editorial (May 4) emphasized the importance of “shifting to a social structure that will be able to respond to the age of a declining birthrate and aging population.” In particular, calling for a review, it said that conventional social security “inclines toward services for the elderly” and “measures to counter the declining birthrate have been weak.” Although “it is necessary to put effort into the solution of pressing issues, such as pensions, medical treatment, and nursing care,” the Sankei continued, “It must not be forgotten that the problem of the declining birthrate lies at the root of these issues. Even if the government keeps on tinkering with the pension and medical systems and the like, in the end reforms will reach an impasse unless measures are properly adopted to counter this underlying problem.” The Sankei added, “It is important to see measures to counter the declining birthrate as an investment in the future and to give priority to the budget required. In doing so, it will be necessary to tap financial resources from not only inside but also outside the framework of social security spending. The government and ruling parties are considering a hike in the consumption tax rate as an additional financial source for social security spending, but they should also use this means to ensure funds for measures to counter the declining birthrate.” The Sankei also called on the Japanese people to share “awareness that the declining birthrate represents a crisis threatening the existence of the nation.”

The Nikkei carried editorials on both May 4 and 5 under the general headline “Change! The declining birthrate.” The May 4 editorial, titled “Moderate birthrate targets needed to overcome the population crisis,” remarked, “The time has come for action to halt the trend toward a declining birthrate in order to maintain the nation’s strength and also to indicate Japan’s presence to the international community.” Saying that “Every individual should share a healthy sense of crisis,” it then proposed, “On the basis of a national consensus, the government should stipulate moderate long-term targets for the total fertility ratio, which is the estimated number of children that a woman gives birth to during her lifetime.” Mentioning the results of a basic survey of birthrate trends conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2005, which indicated that “although most ordinary couples want two or more children, the actual birthrate is much lower than that,” The Nikkei, while stating that “people are free to choose whether or not to have children,” emphasized the need for “the central government, local governments, and companies to demonstrate a friendly attitude toward young couples and establish guidelines to achieve the policies necessary for them to pursue their ideals.”

In addition, referring to proposals by the National Institute for Research Advancement to “restore the birthrate to 1.6 in about 10 years and, during that period, redesign the pension system and tax system” and “after that, if the birthrate is returned to a level of higher than 2.0 over the next 50 years, then hopefully the total population will stabilize at 90 million people,” The Nikkei noted, “The next 10 years are going to be decisive.”

In its May 5 editorial headlined “Improve diverse child day-care services through deregulation,” The Nikkei referred to the present situation in which “If all women who want to work became employed, it would be necessary to increase the number of child day-care centers by a capacity of one million children and after-school care services for lower elementary school children by a capacity of 1.45 million children” (Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare). The editorial then stressed the urgency of “establishing an environment in which people can give birth to and raise children with peace of mind while working.” The Nikkei also said that temporary expenditures like the child-care fund that the central government has included in its supplementary budget are inadequate for improving child day-care services and pointed to the need for measures to secure medium- and long-term financial resources.

(Copyright 2009 Foreign Press Center, Japan)

*Japan Brief is an original production of the Foreign Press Center, Japan and does not represent the views of the Government of Japan or of any other body.


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