Japan Brief/FPCJ, No. 0861
September 29, 2008

Inauguration of the Aso Cabinet and the Political Situation From Now On

On September 24 Liberal Democratic Party President Taro Aso was chosen by the Diet as Japan’s 92nd prime minister. In the evening of the same day Prime Minister Aso launched his new cabinet, which continues the LDP’s coalition administration with the New Komeito. At a press conference at which he named the cabinet ministers, Prime Minister Aso stated, “Basically it will be with these members that we will intrepidly fight in the next general election.” On September 25 Japan’s leading newspapers reported the formation of the Aso cabinet on their front pages under such headlines as “Aso’s ready-for-battle cabinet launched” (Yomiuri Shimbun), “Aso’s election cabinet” (Asahi Shimbun), and “Crisis team to prepare for general election” (Mainichi Shimbun).

Meanwhile, at an extraordinary party convention on September 21, the Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party, officially approved the reelection of DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa for a third term. Ozawa pledged to stake his political life on the outcome of the next general election. With the inauguration of the Aso cabinet and the reelection of Ozawa for a third term, the top ruling and opposition parties have both consolidated their leadership, so the political situation can be expected to become increasingly unsettled as the tug-of-war between them over the timing of the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the next general election gathers momentum.

LDP Places Hopes on Aso Cabinet
Shortly after its convocation, the current extraordinary session of the Diet was preoccupied with the designation of a new prime minister and witnessed the opening shots in campaigning for the next general election. The cause of the commotion was the announcement by then Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda on September 1 that he would resign so that policies could be realized “by a new team.” Fukuda’s predecessor, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, had suddenly announced his resignation in September 2007 after just one year in office, and now, only one year later, Fukuda himself was stepping down as well. So the LDP was forced to hold its third party presidential election in two years.

This time the election was a crowded race with five candidates. In the end, however, Aso scored an overwhelming victory, winning 351 of the 527 effective votes (386 from LDP Diet members and 141 from prefectural chapter representatives) counted on September 22.

On September 25 leading newspaper reports pointed to two notable features of the new Aso cabinet. First, politicians who have close relations with Aso have been appointed to the main cabinet posts. The Mainichi noted, “Of the 17 ministers in the Aso cabinet, seven have been on friendly terms with the prime minister for some time, including Kunio Hatoyama (minister of internal affairs and communications), Shoichi Nakagawa (minister of finance and state minister in charge of financial services), Takeo Kawamura (chief cabinet secretary), and Akira Amari (state minister in charge of administrative reform).” In addition, of the candidates who ran in the LDP presidential election against Aso, Kaoru Yosano has been kept on board as state minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy and Shigeru Ishiba has been appointed minister of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. However, the Koga faction, which is the third largest in the LDP, has been given only one post. Furthermore, the Yomiuri commented, “In campaigning for the next election for the House of Representatives, the prime minister wants to use himself as the LDP’s face as much as possible, since he is popular among the public.”

The second feature of the new cabinet is that it has distanced itself from the structural reform policies that were actively promoted by the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi (2001–6). Prime Minister Aso has said that it will take three years for the Japanese economy to fully recover and that pump-priming measures are the top priority for the time being. Announcing the cabinet lineup himself, Aso stressed that he had asked Finance Minister Nakagawa to “tackle financial affairs for economic recovery,” Internal Affairs and Communications Minister Hatoyama to “restore vitality to the regions,” Minister of Health, Labor, and Welfare Yoichi Masuzoe to “stabilize employment,” and Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Toshihiro Nikai to “deal with the problems faced by small and medium-sized companies.” The Aso cabinet does not include anyone from the camp that advocates maintenance of the structural reform course.

Supplementary Budget Deliberations Closely Intertwined with Issue of House of Representatives Dissolution
In his policy speech at the DPJ’s extraordinary party convention, DPJ President Ozawa declared, “The time has come for us to aim to take over the reins of government and build a new national life based on the principle of ‘people’s lives first.’” He asserted, “By deciding the order of priority in the budget according to what is important for the people’s life, we can properly ensure the necessary financial sources for the realization of our policies.”

In line with this basic policy, DPJ President Ozawa proposed three stages for realization of the party’s main policies: (1) those to be implemented in the next fiscal year, (2) those to be implemented within two years, and (3) those to be implemented within four years. It is calculated that \22 trillion would be needed to implement policies in these three stages, but Ozawa insisted, “We can raise the funds if we eliminate waste and cut expenditures by 10%.” However, regarding such issues stressed by Ozawa as a “major shift in the financial structure” and “total rearrangement of the budget,” uncertainty remains as no detailed explanations were given. The DPJ has promised to include specifics about these main policies in its election manifesto.

In relation to the timing of the dissolution of the House of Representatives and holding of a general election, a major pending issue in the extraordinary session of the Diet is deliberation of the fiscal 2008 supplementary budget bill. The Aso administration emphasizes economic-stimulus measures, and it is the supplementary budget that will provide funds for the currently proposed comprehensive economic package. According to media reports, therefore, Prime Minister Aso’s plan is to dissolve the House of Representatives immediately after passage of the supplementary budget. The battle between the ruling and opposition parties will begin on October 1–3, when, following the prime minister’s policy speech to the Diet, representatives of the political parties will have the chance to question him in the interpellation. Deliberations on the supplementary budget are scheduled to take place from October 6, but it is still uncertain whether coordination with the DPJ will make progress or break down. Depending on the situation, there is a possibility that the Prime Minister might use his prerogative to opt for an early dissolution of the House of Representatives. Whatever happens, the outlook for the extraordinary session of the Diet is stormy.

Newspaper Editorials on Inauguration of Aso Cabinet
On September 25 all of Japan’s five national newspapers carried editorials on the Aso cabinet’s inauguration. They were almost in unison in urging the new prime minister to devote himself to Diet discussions so as to gain the people’s understanding of the mountain of difficult problems facing the nation and then to hold a general election in order to test the popular will.

The Yomiuri editorial began, “Prime Minister Taro Aso’s new cabinet was inaugurated Wednesday night. But it sets out under unusual circumstances, with the dissolution of the House of Representatives and a subsequent general election just around the corner.” It went on expectantly, “Aso is responsible for presenting clearly defined principles for the country’s rejuvenation and outlining concrete policies for the public in his policy speech scheduled to be delivered at the Diet on Monday [September 29]. We hope Aso will engage in lively and constructive debates with Ozawa and other opposition party leaders during their interpellations.”

The Mainichi editorial commented, “Former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda both irresponsibly abandoned their administrations. Management of the government using the majority in the House of Representatives that the ruling parties gained in the general election held on the issue of postal privatization [under the Koizumi administration] has reached its limit. This is the main reason why the new administration should seek the judgment of the people.”

The Asahi editorial stated, “Some members of the ruling coalition are lukewarm to the idea [of convening the budget committees of both Diet houses with the presence of the prime minister and all cabinet members for at least a week before dissolving the House of Representatives], saying that only the opposition would gain from a Diet debate. It’s pathetic that they want to dissolve the lower house before they give themselves away. Because a general election is on the horizon, the new cabinet is urged to put its ideas in order and present them for the public to scrutinize.”

Go to Member Profiles of the Aso Cabinet.

(Copyright 2008 Foreign Press Center / Japan)