Japan Brief/FPCJ, No. 0859
September 16, 2008

Lifting of Ban on Nuclear Exports to India

On September 6 a plenary meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an organization of 45 nations including Japan that oversees the administration of nuclear-related exports, unanimously approved a waiver for India with regard to restrictions on nuclear-related exports to countries that are not signatories to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). As a result, the road has been opened to a lifting of the ban on exports of nuclear technology and nuclear fuel to India that has continued for more than 30 years since its nuclear test in 1974. The NSG decision has raised concern that the NPT regime will be further weakened.

Japan, which, as the only country in the world to have suffered atomic bombings, considers maintenance of the NPT regime to be a basic policy, also approved the lifting of the trade embargo against India. As well as praising India’s promise to continue its moratorium on nuclear tests, Japan concluded that lifting the ban would have many merits in terms of tackling the problem of climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and others. However, several uncertain factors still remain, including whether India will continue its nuclear test moratorium indefinitely and whether the US Congress will approve the bill enabling the nuclear trade embargo against India to be lifted.

Issue Began with US-India Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement
The issue of lifting the ban on nuclear-related exports to India has its origins in a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and India signed by US President George W. Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh when the former visited India in March 2006. The gist of the agreement is that the NSG will lift the ban on exports of nuclear reactors and nuclear fuel to India, which is not a signatory of the NPT even though it possesses nuclear weapons, on condition that India accepts inspections of its civilian nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The aim of the United States in concluding the agreement seems to have been to forge close relations with India, which is emerging as a strong power, but the US-India pact also stirred a serious debate in the international community, because there is no denying that it would shake the foundations of the NPT regime. Nevertheless, US-led work toward realization of the agreement has steadily made progress. On August 1 an extraordinary meeting of the IAEA board of governors approved an agreement on inspections that increases the number of nuclear facilities (excluding military facilities) in India to be inspected from 6 to 14. Thus, the first hurdle toward lifting of the ban on nuclear exports to India was cleared. The next hurdle was for the NSG to give India special treatment under the NPT provisions and lift the nuclear export ban.

Response of the Japanese Government
If the ban on nuclear exports to India were lifted by the NSG, it would mean that India’s status of possessing nuclear weapons but remaining outside the NPT would be recognized by the international community. If that happened, the Bush administration would most likely be accused of having double standards---permitting India’s possession of nuclear weapons but pressing “rogue states” like Iran and North Korea to abolish theirs. For that reason, the 45 countries of the NSG did not see eye to eye on the matter and were unable to reach a conclusion at a meeting in late August. According to reports, a conflict of opinions also surfaced at the resumed extraordinary meeting held from September 4. Broadly speaking, the major nuclear powers, such as the United States, Britain, France, and Russia, with their eyes on entry into the huge nuclear market in India, were in favor of lifting the ban, while smaller countries, such as Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland, were opposed.

Eventually, however, the NSG reached the unanimous decision that was necessary. Those countries that had been hesitant to lift the ban concurred with a final statement that referred to a statement issued by Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee on September 5 announcing India’s commitment to a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing, thereby affirming India’s intention to continue the moratorium and the emphasis that NSG members place on this matter. Japan also approved the final statement.

Stressing that there was no problem with the Japanese government’s decision, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda told the press on September 8, “It means approving a waiver conditionally. If India violates the conditions, the NSG will discuss the matter.” At a press conference on the same day, as reasons for the Japanese government’s response, Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura cited such factors as measures to counter global warming, the increased transparency of nuclear energy activities, and India’s statement that it would continue its moratorium on nuclear tests and explained, “We made the decision from a broad perspective.”

Newspaper Editorials on the NSG Decision
Four of Japan’s five national newspapers carried editorials on the lifting of the ban on nuclear exports to India. On many political, economic, and social issues, there is a tendency for Japan’s main newspapers to assert distinctive positions. This time, however, it was striking that the four newspapers gave almost identical commentaries. Their negative evaluation of the NSG decision was shown in their respective headlines: “Special treatment for India: Can the NPT regime be protected?” (Mainichi Shimbun, September 7); “Nuclear waiver for India: The US-led decision is a historic mistake” (Asahi Shimbun, September 8); “Lifting the ban on nuclear exports to India is hard to understand” (The Nikkei, September 8); and “A waiver that shakes NPT to its core” (Yomiuri Shimbun, September 10). In particular, concerning the fact that North Korea clearly has not given up its ambition to develop nuclear weapons, the editorials pointed to the danger of double standards in the NPT regime.

Representative of the four editorials, the Yomiuri editorial warned, “India has concluded an inspection agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency—the UN nuclear watchdog—concerning civilian-use nuclear facilities. However, the country’s facilities for military use have been left untouched, and it has been pressing ahead with its nuclear development. As long as India’s nuclear development continues largely unhindered, there is little likelihood that North Korea and Iran will give up their nuclear ambitions.” The Asahi editorial similarly concluded, “Enhancing trust in the NPT is essential also for Japan’s national security as it demands nuclear disarmament of North Korea. But Tokyo accepted this special treatment of India, thereby deeply damaging the credibility of its commitment to nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation diplomacy.”

(Copyright 2008 Foreign Press Center / Japan)